I am optimistic that the global economy will recover but it will be vastly different. Overall, it may not only be a more localized economy but a more productive one too as weaker players get weeded out and some industries fade while others surge. It’s also likely that the surpluses produced by revamped economies will be even more unevenly divided, which certainly could lead to more political unrest and stronger calls for government action to address inequality, which itself may be problematic since so many government programs have unintended and often negative consequences. The challenges to every sector of society will be acute.
Anyway, here are some predictions (70 fearless predictions!) about what the shape of the world order might look like. Remember this however—no one including the author really knows what will happen in a month let alone a few years but still I try:
- Marginal businesses that were trading “four quarters for a dollar” before the pandemic began will be toast
- Retail space will be decimated and have to be re-positioned to uses that are a) pandemic-resistant, b) big box store-resistant and c) internet-resistant not to mention that they will have to accommodate a wider range of options including live-work at grade and WFH (work-from-home)
- Demand for office space will plummet and, again, office towers will need to be reworked into multi use places…
- Industrial production and demand for industrial space will increase as international trading partners come to distrust each other and global supply chains give way (in part) to more local production
- Grow local will be even more of thing
- Agricultural land will increase in value not for speculation purposes but to produce more food stuffs and demand for seasonal plots/micro gardens within an hour or so of towns and cities will rise
- Homes in desirable cities will continue to accelerate in value
- Small towns within an hour or two of larger centers will boom
- Demand for highrise condominiums and apartments will moderate or drop
- Work from home will become a permanent feature of modern economies
- Everything that can be delivered to the home, will be
- Home reno companies and trades will see unprecedented demand as people renovate their residences to become places of work too, not to mention spaces where they can play, entertain, learn, make, create, ship, produce energy, socialize, grow[1], and shop from, plus owners will want to animate their properties (even their principal residences) to allow for both multi-generational living arrangements as well as providing them with some passive rental income from basement apartments, sideyard apartments, attic apartments, microsuites, apartments above the garage, laneway homes, backyard coach houses, tiny homes, mini offices and workshops…
- Car trips will be less frequent
- CO(2) generated by car trips will drop
- Electric vehicle sales will boom
- Demand for more walkable neighborhoods and more destinations within walking distance (like, say, a doctor’s office or dentist or physiotherapist) will rise
- TaaS (transportation as a service) and driverless vehicles will arrive in force and, as a result, private car ownership will drop, demand for auto mechanics will crater as will demand for truckdrivers, chauffeurs, taxi/Uber/Lyft drivers, used cars, new car dealerships, auto parts, car insurance, collision repair, vehicle maintenance and so forth
- Public transit will face increasing competition from TaaS
- Demand for oil will drop, so too will demand for parking spaces, garages and lots, which will be repurposed for higher and better uses than car storage
- Reliance on cloud computing and AI will vastly increase
- Demand for battery storage and better batteries will rise enormously
- The number of gigpreneurs will skyrocket
- Business models that surprise and delight, combining unusual things together in ways that please clients and customers will prevail
- Companies that don’t treat the words “customer service” as an oxymoron will prevail
- Trust will be even more prized and so branding that creates trust will be of paramount importance
- People will either become more self-reliant or face being part of the wrong end of a K-shaped economic recovery (in other words, they will be on the downslope of the “k”)
- Productivity will increase for those on the upward trending part of the “k,” a good news story for them
- AI, artificially intelligent agents[2], will be another boon to knowledge workers making the difference between winners and losers in today’s income wars even more pronounced
- Telemedicine is here to stay
- Distance education, coaching, mentoring, lifetime learning will be even more important
- Home schooling will be a bigger part of education as will remote learning plus the arrival of true AI will allow mass customization of education so that children can explore more of the world around them and follow more closely their own natural interests
- More people will enter the trades and establish their own firms
- Demand for universities and colleges, law programs, MBAs and the like will falter
- Artisanal arts will be rediscovered, mind you, wrapped in modern era business models that will flourish
- Co-working spaces will fade unless they also provide a place to live and work in ONE building
- There will be more pressure for a guaranteed minimum income, which many believe will not only be useful and necessary but more efficient than a myriad of top-heavy, bureaucrat-run government programs now in existence
- Cities will either relax their zoning codes to allow more flexibility in how real property is used or face mounting civil disobedience as well as emigration of their best and brightest to more friendly confines
- This will mean repurposing mono-cultured mega shopping malls and office towers into mixed-use buildings
- Cities, towns and villages will need to develop different policy planning tools and outside-the-box ideas, so they attract business investment and entrepreneurs, and spur on more innovation
- Hardening of communities will become a much higher priority—more efficient, more sustainable, more grow local, produce/manufacture local, deal with wastes locally, produce textiles locally, become more energy independent as well as more independent in services (think finance, loans, insurance…), meds/pharma, healthcare, education, entertainment, construction, tourism, policing and so forth
- Communities will need to be more affordable, live-work-play, create-make-learn-grow, entertain-shop, exercise-grow-socialize, diversified-visitable, neo-urbanist, walkable, animated neighborhoods, which are both economically and environmentally sustainable…
- Weather forecasts will still suck
- Privacy is a joke—you have none
- Leisure is the new infrastructure… entertainment components (a new economic engine) will be added to almost every new project
- It will generate far more economic activity than simply building a new road or putting in additional municipal services
- World #1 economy will be China
- First PERSON on Mars will be…
Elon Musk Chinese - Arthur C Clark’s elevators to space will be built on the moon and Mars not Earth
- Alzheimer’s will be a forgotten disease
- Digitally recorded film/video/books/blogs/photos/images will vanish into the void as websites/apps/cloud storage and computers evolve and disappear or are replaced
- Entertainers/starchitects/elite artists/writers etc will make more money after they die
- Homes will be smaller
- Tiny houses will be everywhere
- Everyone will have at least five or six careers during their lifetimes
- An embarrassed NHL finally gets rid of fighting
- English will prove to be unstoppable
- There will be more people in ESL (English as a Second Language) schools than any other single course
- People will never retire
- People will work effectively into their 80s and 90s and people will live into their 90s and 100s
- Get ready for a 70-year career
- Fewer people than ever will benefit from meaningful pensions
- More people will embrace real estate and side gigs as a means to provide for themselves in their senior years
- Age of majority, voting age, drinking age, legal age, military service age and driving age will be 16 and society will stop treating teenagers as incompetent nincompoops and recognize as well as value the energy/passion/speed/sweat equity and luck they bring to EVERYTHING
- Helicopter parenting will get worse
- Economists will continue to be able to accurately predict nine out of the last five recessions
- Female-headed startups will have higher survivorship rates than their male counterparts, but male versions will grow faster and larger
- More nation states will fail and become abominations
- Most of those nations will not only repress minorities within their boundaries, but they will also fail to respect/promote women’s rights
- Without peace, order and good government, no value can be created
- The future will surprise us!
@ProfBruce
Copyright Bruce M Firestone, Ottawa Canada 2021
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[1] Backyard homesteading (aka backyard gardening or urban farming) will be rediscovered as something that not only feeds your family and provides you with greater food security but also has an ROI (return on investment) that can be as high as 1000% pa.
[2] Personalized AI agents will help you with your schoolwork, your taxes, managing your social networks, research, writing, taking notes, answering your phone, screening your calls, paying your bills, babysitting your kids (when you have them), diagnosing illnesses, writing your shopping list, ordering stuff for you, help running your business, side hustle or gig, solving problems, reminding you of your appointments/birthdays/anniversaries, doing your banking, writing emails, posting to social media, translating in real time as you speak or are spoken to in a language not your own…
FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS COACHING THAT’LL HELP YOU PROVIDE FOR YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FOR 3-GENERATIONS, PLEASE CONTACT:
Bruce M Firestone, B Eng (civil), M Eng-Sci, PhD
Real Estate Investment and Business coach
Ottawa Senators founder
ROYAL LePAGE Performance Realty broker
613-762-8884
bruce@brucemfirestone.com
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