Super Bowl LI Probability of New England Patriots Comeback

By Bruce Firestone | Uncategorized

Feb 13

Tom Brady in his Super Bowl LI post-game interview said there were about 30 plays that had to go right for the Patriots to mount a successful comeback.

So I wanted to know how old I will be before I see another improbable result like this–one I must admit I didn’t see since I turned the game off when the Atlanta Falcons went up 28-3 in the third quarter.

The answer?

I will be 58638 years old; it will be Super Bowl 58522 (don’t bother trying to show this in Roman numerals, the Romans couldn’t count that high), and the year will be 60590.

If you want to know how old you will be before you are likely to see another miracle like this, use this simple formula:

your current age + 58573 = _________ age you will be when another team mounts a comeback like this one in Super Bowl LI

How did I calculate that?

Well, Brady completed

43 of his record-setting 62 attempts giving him a success rate of 0.69.

Assuming that all 30 crucial plays were pass plays, you have the probability of success of the entire series equal to 0.69**30 or 1.70727E-05.

The inverse of this number is 58573; ie, this was a 1 in 58573 type of deal.

So here’re my numbers:

image

@ profbruce

postscript: I am quite sure that Tom Brady has made a deal with Faust like Joe Boyd did in the 1958 film

Damn Yankees

I mean he’s a tall, good looking, smart, funny, talented, rich Nocal boy, married to a world class beauty, and they have great kids. 

In the movie, middle aged Joe Boyd makes a deal with the devil–he leaves his wife to become young again so he can help his favorite baseball team (the aptly named Washington Senators) finally snatch the pennant from the Yankees only to find out that he misses his faithful spouse and his old life… the bright lights aren’t quite what he expected, especially not at the cost of his soul.

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